ABSTRACT
Background & objectives: The treatment of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) remains controversial; the ability to predict the risk of rupture for an aneurysm would be of clinical value. The aim of this study was to determine and evaluate the predictive value of the risk factors of IA rupture. Methods: This retrospective study involved 379 consecutive patients with 441 aneurysms between August 2011 and July 2014. Based on clinical data and computed tomography angiography findings, the potential of risk factors to predict the aneurysmal rupture was assessed using statistical methods. Results: Age, hypertension, heart disease, diabetes mellitus, cerebral atherosclerosis, aneurysms located at the internal carotid artery (ICA) and neck width (N) correlated negatively with rupture risk. Aneurysms located at the anterior communicating artery, bifurcation, irregularity, with a daughter sac, aneurysm height, maximum size, aspect ratio (AR), height-to-width ratio and bottleneck factor were significantly and positively correlated with rupture risk. The multivariate logistic regression model revealed that bifurcation aneurysm, irregular aneurysm and high AR increased the rupture risk, while cerebral atherosclerosis, aneurysm located on the ICA and greater N decreased the risk. Receiver operating characteristic analysis of AR curve values differed according to circumstances. Interpretation & conclusions: Cerebral atherosclerosis, location in the ICA and larger N were the protective factors against aneurysm rupture, and IAs located at bifurcations, irregular shape and increased AR indicated a greater rupture risk.